"""Quantitative variance-share decomposition commands.""" from openbb_core.app.model.example import APIEx from openbb_core.app.model.obbject import OBBject from openbb_core.app.router import Router from openbb_core.provider.abstract.data import Data from openbb_core.provider.abstract.query_params import QueryParams from pydantic import Field from openbb_quantitative._factor_helpers import ( _DEFAULT_PERIODS, align_inputs, period_start, ) router = Router(prefix="", description="Variance-share decomposition commands.") _RESIDUAL_LABEL = "Residual" class RiskDecompositionQueryParams(QueryParams): """Query parameters for the risk_decomposition endpoint.""" __category__ = "quantitative" __output_columns__ = ("period", "factor", "contribution", "share") data: list[Data] = Field( description="Target time series (index column plus the target column)." ) factors_data: list[Data] = Field( description="Factor matrix (index column plus one column per factor)." ) target: str = Field( default="close", description="Name of the column in `data` to decompose against the factors.", ) index: str = Field( default="date", description="Name of the index column shared by `data` and `factors_data`.", ) risk_free_column: str | None = Field( default=None, description="Optional name of the risk-free rate column in `factors_data`." " When provided, the target is converted to excess returns before" " decomposition and the column is dropped from the factor set.", ) periods: list[str] = Field( default_factory=lambda: list(_DEFAULT_PERIODS), description="Named look-back periods to decompose over, anchored to the" " latest factor observation.", ) class RiskDecompositionData(Data): """One variance-share observation for a given look-back period.""" period: str = Field(description="Look-back period the decomposition was run over.") factor: str = Field( description="Factor name, or 'Residual' for the idiosyncratic component." ) contribution: float = Field( description="Covariance-based contribution to Var(target): for a factor," " beta_i * Cov(factor_i, target); for 'Residual', Var(target) * (1 - R^2)." ) share: float = Field( description="Fraction of Var(target) attributed to this factor (or to the" " residual). Factor shares sum to R^2; the residual share equals 1 - R^2." ) @router.command( methods=["POST"], examples=[ APIEx( parameters={ "target": "close", "data": APIEx.mock_data("timeseries", 800), "factors_data": APIEx.mock_data("timeseries", 800), } ) ], ) def risk_decomposition( params: RiskDecompositionQueryParams, ) -> OBBject[list[RiskDecompositionData]]: """Decompose Var(target) into per-factor contributions plus residual variance. For each look-back period, runs OLS of the target on the factor matrix and splits the target's variance via the additive identity `Var(target) = sum_i beta_i * Cov(factor_i, target) + Var(residual)`. Returned shares sum to 1 per period: factor shares sum to R^2 and the residual row holds `1 - R^2`. Handles correlated factors cleanly because each share is measured by the covariance with the target rather than by the factor's standalone variance. """ import statsmodels.api as sm factor_matrix, target_series, factor_cols = align_inputs( params.data, params.factors_data, target=params.target, index=params.index, risk_free_column=params.risk_free_column, ) aligned = factor_matrix.assign(**{params.target: target_series}) max_date = aligned.index.max() out: list[RiskDecompositionData] = [] for period in params.periods: start = period_start(max_date, period) window = aligned if start is None else aligned[aligned.index >= start] if len(window) <= len(factor_cols) + 1: continue y = window[params.target] var_y = float(y.var()) if var_y == 0.0: continue x = sm.add_constant(window[factor_cols]) model = sm.OLS(y, x).fit() residual_var = float(model.resid.var()) for name in factor_cols: beta = float(model.params[name]) cov = float(window[name].cov(y)) contribution = beta * cov out.append( RiskDecompositionData( period=period, factor=name, contribution=contribution, share=contribution / var_y, ) ) out.append( RiskDecompositionData( period=period, factor=_RESIDUAL_LABEL, contribution=residual_var, share=residual_var / var_y, ) ) return OBBject(results=out)