"""Quantitative Analysis Model""" __docformat__ = "numpy" import logging import warnings from typing import Any, Tuple, Union, List import pandas as pd import statsmodels.api as sm from scipy import stats import numpy as np from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller, kpss from gamestonk_terminal.decorators import log_start_end # TODO : Since these are common/ they should be independent of 'stock' info. # df_stock should be replaced with a generic df and a column variable logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) @log_start_end(log=logger) def get_summary(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: """Print summary statistics Parameters ---------- df : pd.DataFrame Dataframe to get summary statistics for """ df_stats = df.describe(percentiles=[0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.9]) print(df_stats.to_string()) df_stats.loc["var"] = df_stats.loc["std"] ** 2 return df_stats @log_start_end(log=logger) def get_seasonal_decomposition( df: pd.DataFrame, multiplicative: bool ) -> Tuple[Any, pd.DataFrame, pd.DataFrame]: """Perform seasonal decomposition Parameters ---------- df_stock : pd.DataFrame Dataframe of targeted data multiplicative : bool Boolean to indicate multiplication instead of addition Returns ------- result: Any Result of statsmodels seasonal_decompose cycle: pd.DataFrame Filtered cycle trend: pd.DataFrame Filtered Trend """ seasonal_periods = 5 # Hodrick-Prescott filter # See Ravn and Uhlig: http://home.uchicago.edu/~huhlig/papers/uhlig.ravn.res.2002.pdf lamb = 107360000000 model = ["additive", "multiplicative"][multiplicative] result = seasonal_decompose(df, model=model, period=seasonal_periods) cycle, trend = sm.tsa.filters.hpfilter( result.trend[result.trend.notna().values], lamb=lamb ) return result, pd.DataFrame(cycle), pd.DataFrame(trend) @log_start_end(log=logger) def get_normality(data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: """ Look at the distribution of returns and generate statistics on the relation to the normal curve. This function calculates skew and kurtosis (the third and fourth moments) and performs both a Jarque-Bera and Shapiro Wilk test to determine if data is normally distributed. Parameters ---------- df : pd.DataFrame Dataframe of targeted data Returns ------- pd.DataFrame Dataframe containing statistics of normality """ # Kurtosis # Measures height and sharpness of the central peak relative to that of a standard bell curve k, kpval = stats.kurtosistest(data) # Skewness # Measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution of a random variable about its mean s, spval = stats.skewtest(data) # Jarque-Bera goodness of fit test on sample data # Tests if the sample data has the skewness and kurtosis matching a normal distribution jb, jbpval = stats.jarque_bera(data) # Shapiro # The Shapiro-Wilk test tests the null hypothesis that the data was drawn from a normal distribution. sh, shpval = stats.shapiro(data) # Kolmogorov-Smirnov # The one-sample test compares the underlying distribution F(x) of a sample against a given distribution G(x). # Comparing to normal here. ks, kspval = stats.kstest(data, "norm") l_statistic = [k, s, jb, sh, ks] l_pvalue = [kpval, spval, jbpval, shpval, kspval] return pd.DataFrame( [l_statistic, l_pvalue], columns=[ "Kurtosis", "Skewness", "Jarque-Bera", "Shapiro-Wilk", "Kolmogorov-Smirnov", ], index=["Statistic", "p-value"], ) @log_start_end(log=logger) def get_unitroot(df: pd.DataFrame, fuller_reg: str, kpss_reg: str) -> pd.DataFrame: """Calculate test statistics for unit roots Parameters ---------- df : pd.DataFrame DataFrame of target variable fuller_reg : str Type of regression of ADF test kpss_reg : str Type of regression for KPSS test Returns ------- pd.DataFrame Dataframe with results of ADF test and KPSS test """ # The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test # Used to test for a unit root in a univariate process in the presence of serial correlation. result = adfuller(df, regression=fuller_reg) cols = ["Test Statistic", "P-Value", "NLags", "Nobs", "ICBest"] vals = [result[0], result[1], result[2], result[3], result[5]] data = pd.DataFrame(data=vals, index=cols, columns=["ADF"]) # Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test # Test for level or trend stationarity # This test seems to produce an Interpolation Error which says # The test statistic is outside of the range of p-values available in the # look-up table. The actual p-value is greater than the p-value returned. # Wrap this in catch_warnings to prevent with warnings.catch_warnings(): warnings.simplefilter("ignore") res2 = kpss(df, regression=kpss_reg, nlags="auto") vals2 = [res2[0], res2[1], res2[2], "", ""] data["KPSS"] = vals2 return data def calculate_adjusted_var( kurtosis: float, skew: float, ndp: float, std: float, mean: float ): """Calculates VaR, which is adjusted for skew and kurtosis (Cornish-Fischer-Expansion) Parameters ---------- kurtosis: float kurtosis of data skew: float skew of data ndp: float normal distribution percentage number (99% -> -2.326) std: float standard deviation of data mean: float mean of data Returns ------- float Real adjusted VaR """ # Derived from Cornish-Fisher-Expansion # Formula for quantile from "Finance Compact Plus" by Zimmerman; Part 1, page 130-131 # More material/resources: # - "Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance" by Gilli, Maringer & Schumann; # - https://www.value-at-risk.net/the-cornish-fisher-expansion/; # - https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:442078/FULLTEXT01.pdf, Section 2.4.2, p.18; # - "Risk Management and Financial Institutions" by John C. Hull skew_component = skew / 6 * (ndp**2 - 1) ** 2 - skew**2 / 36 * ndp * ( 2 * ndp**2 - 5 ) kurtosis_component = (kurtosis - 3) / 24 * ndp * (ndp**2 - 3) quantile = ndp + skew_component + kurtosis_component log_return = mean + quantile * std real_return = 2.7182818**log_return - 1 return real_return def get_var( data: pd.DataFrame, use_mean: bool, adjusted_var: bool, student_t: bool, percentile: Union[int, float], portfolio: bool, ): """Gets value at risk for specified stock dataframe Parameters ---------- data: pd.DataFrame Dataframe of a stock/portfolio use_mean: bool If one should use the stocks mean for calculation adjusted_var: bool If one should return VaR adjusted for skew and kurtosis student_t: bool If one should use the student-t distribution percentile: Union[int,float] VaR percentile portfolio: bool If the data is a portfolio Returns ------- list list of VaR list list of historical VaR """ if not portfolio: data = data[["adjclose"]].copy() data.loc[:, "return"] = data.adjclose.pct_change() data_return = data["return"] else: data = data[1:].copy() data_return = data # Distribution percentages percentile_90 = -1.282 percentile_95 = -1.645 percentile_99 = -2.326 percentile_custom = stats.norm.ppf(1 - percentile) # Mean if use_mean: mean = data_return.mean() else: mean = 0 # Standard Deviation std = data_return.std(axis=0) if adjusted_var: # Kurtosis # Measures height and sharpness of the central peak relative to that of a standard bell curve k = data_return.kurtosis(axis=0) # Skewness # Measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution of a random variable about its mean s = data_return.skew(axis=0) # Adjusted VaR var_90 = calculate_adjusted_var(k, s, percentile_90, std, mean) var_95 = calculate_adjusted_var(k, s, percentile_95, std, mean) var_99 = calculate_adjusted_var(k, s, percentile_99, std, mean) var_custom = calculate_adjusted_var(k, s, percentile_custom, std, mean) elif student_t: # Calculating VaR based on the Student-t distribution # Fitting student-t parameters to the data v, _, _ = stats.t.fit(data_return.fillna(0)) if not use_mean: mean = 0 var_90 = np.sqrt((v - 2) / v) * stats.t.ppf(0.1, v) * std + mean var_95 = np.sqrt((v - 2) / v) * stats.t.ppf(0.05, v) * std + mean var_99 = np.sqrt((v - 2) / v) * stats.t.ppf(0.01, v) * std + mean var_custom = np.sqrt((v - 2) / v) * stats.t.ppf(1 - percentile, v) * std + mean else: # Regular Var var_90 = np.exp(mean + percentile_90 * std) - 1 var_95 = np.exp(mean + percentile_95 * std) - 1 var_99 = np.exp(mean + percentile_99 * std) - 1 var_custom = np.exp(mean + percentile_custom * std) - 1 if not portfolio: data.sort_values("return", inplace=True, ascending=True) data_return = data["return"] else: data.sort_values(inplace=True, ascending=True) data_return = data # Historical VaR hist_var_90 = data_return.quantile(0.1) hist_var_95 = data_return.quantile(0.05) hist_var_99 = data_return.quantile(0.01) hist_var_custom = data_return.quantile(1 - percentile) var_list = [var_90, var_95, var_99, var_custom] hist_var_list = [hist_var_90, hist_var_95, hist_var_99, hist_var_custom] return var_list, hist_var_list def get_es( data: pd.DataFrame, use_mean: bool, distribution: str, percentile: Union[float, int], portfolio: bool, ) -> Tuple[List[float], List[float]]: """Gets Expected Shortfall for specified stock dataframe Parameters ---------- data: pd.DataFrame Dataframe of a stock use_mean: bool If one should use the stocks mean for calculation distribution: str Type of distribution, options: laplace, student_t, normal percentile: Union[float,int] VaR percentile portfolio: bool If the data is a portfolio Returns ------- list list of ES list list of historical ES """ if not portfolio: data = data[["adjclose"]].copy() data.loc[:, "return"] = data.adjclose.pct_change() data_return = data["return"] else: data = data[1:].copy() data_return = data # Distribution percentages percentile_90 = -1.282 percentile_95 = -1.645 percentile_99 = -2.326 percentile_custom = stats.norm.ppf(1 - percentile) # Mean if use_mean: mean = data_return.mean() else: mean = 0 # Standard Deviation std = data_return.std(axis=0) if distribution == "laplace": # Calculating ES based on Laplace distribution # For formula see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_shortfall#Laplace_distribution # Fitting b (scale parameter) to the variance of the data # Since variance of the Laplace dist.: var = 2*b**2 # Thus: b = np.sqrt(std**2 / 2) # Calculation es_90 = -b * (1 - np.log(2 * 0.1)) + mean es_95 = -b * (1 - np.log(2 * 0.05)) + mean es_99 = -b * (1 - np.log(2 * 0.01)) + mean if (1 - percentile) < 0.5: es_custom = -b * (1 - np.log(2 * (1 - percentile))) + mean else: es_custom = 0 elif distribution == "student_t": # Calculating ES based on the Student-t distribution # Fitting student-t parameters to the data v, _, scale = stats.t.fit(data_return.fillna(0)) if not use_mean: mean = 0 # Student T Distribution percentages percentile_90 = stats.t.ppf(0.1, v) percentile_95 = stats.t.ppf(0.05, v) percentile_99 = stats.t.ppf(0.01, v) percentile_custom = stats.t.ppf(1 - percentile, v) # Calculation es_90 = ( -scale * (v + percentile_90**2) / (v - 1) * stats.t.pdf(percentile_90, v) / 0.1 + mean ) es_95 = ( -scale * (v + percentile_95**2) / (v - 1) * stats.t.pdf(percentile_95, v) / 0.05 + mean ) es_99 = ( -scale * (v + percentile_99**2) / (v - 1) * stats.t.pdf(percentile_99, v) / 0.01 + mean ) es_custom = ( -scale * (v + percentile_custom**2) / (v - 1) * stats.t.pdf(percentile_custom, v) / (1 - percentile) + mean ) elif distribution == "logistic": # Logistic distribution # For formula see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_shortfall#Logistic_distribution # Fitting s (scale parameter) to the variance of the data # Since variance of the Logistic dist.: var = s**2*pi**2/3 # Thus: s = np.sqrt(3 * std**2 / np.pi**2) # Calculation a = 1 - percentile es_90 = -s * np.log((0.9 ** (1 - 1 / 0.1)) / 0.1) + mean es_95 = -s * np.log((0.95 ** (1 - 1 / 0.05)) / 0.05) + mean es_99 = -s * np.log((0.99 ** (1 - 1 / 0.01)) / 0.01) + mean es_custom = -s * np.log((percentile ** (1 - 1 / a)) / a) + mean else: # Regular Expected Shortfall es_90 = std * -stats.norm.pdf(percentile_90) / 0.1 + mean es_95 = std * -stats.norm.pdf(percentile_95) / 0.05 + mean es_99 = std * -stats.norm.pdf(percentile_99) / 0.01 + mean es_custom = std * -stats.norm.pdf(percentile_custom) / (1 - percentile) + mean # Historical Expected Shortfall _, hist_var_list = get_var(data, use_mean, False, False, percentile, portfolio) hist_es_90 = data_return[data_return <= hist_var_list[0]].mean() hist_es_95 = data_return[data_return <= hist_var_list[1]].mean() hist_es_99 = data_return[data_return <= hist_var_list[2]].mean() hist_es_custom = data_return[data_return <= hist_var_list[3]].mean() es_list = [es_90, es_95, es_99, es_custom] hist_es_list = [hist_es_90, hist_es_95, hist_es_99, hist_es_custom] return es_list, hist_es_list