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OpenBB/prediction_techniques/regression.py
2021-02-20 19:36:59 +00:00

87 lines
4.1 KiB
Python

import argparse
import numpy as np
from helper_funcs import *
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from pandas.plotting import register_matplotlib_converters
register_matplotlib_converters()
from TimeSeriesCrossValidation import splitTrain
from sklearn import linear_model
from sklearn import pipeline
from sklearn import preprocessing
USER_INPUT = 0
LINEAR = 1
QUADRATIC = 2
CUBIC = 3
# -------------------------------------------------- REGRESSION --------------------------------------------------
def regression(l_args, s_ticker, s_interval, df_stock, polynomial):
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(prog='regression',
description="""Regression attempts to model the relationship between
two variables by fitting a linear/quadratic/cubic/other equation to
observed data. One variable is considered to be an explanatory variable,
and the other is considered to be a dependent variable. """)
parser.add_argument('-i', "--input", action="store", dest="n_inputs", type=check_positive, default=40,
help='number of days to use for prediction.')
parser.add_argument('-d', "--days", action="store", dest="n_days", type=check_positive, default=5,
help='prediction days.')
parser.add_argument('-j', "--jumps", action="store", dest="n_jumps", type=check_positive, default=1,
help='number of jumps in training data.')
if polynomial == USER_INPUT:
parser.add_argument('-p', "--polynomial", action="store", dest="n_polynomial", type=check_positive, required=True,
help='polynomial associated with regression.')
try:
(ns_parser, l_unknown_args) = parser.parse_known_args(l_args)
if l_unknown_args:
print(f"The following args couldn't be interpreted: {l_unknown_args}\n")
return
# Split training data
stock_x, stock_y = splitTrain.split_train(df_stock['5. adjusted close'].values, ns_parser.n_inputs, ns_parser.n_days, ns_parser.n_jumps)
# Machine Learning model
if polynomial == LINEAR:
model = linear_model.LinearRegression(n_jobs=-1)
else:
if polynomial == USER_INPUT:
polynomial = ns_parser.n_polynomial
model = pipeline.make_pipeline(preprocessing.PolynomialFeatures(polynomial), linear_model.Ridge())
model.fit(stock_x, stock_y)
l_predictions = model.predict(df_stock['5. adjusted close'].values[-ns_parser.n_inputs:].reshape(1, -1))[0]
# Prediction data
l_pred_days = get_next_stock_market_days(last_stock_day=df_stock['5. adjusted close'].index[-1], n_next_days=ns_parser.n_days)
df_pred = pd.Series(l_predictions, index=l_pred_days, name='Price')
# Plotting
plt.plot(df_stock.index, df_stock['5. adjusted close'], lw=2)
plt.title(f"Regression (polynomial {polynomial}) on {s_ticker} - {ns_parser.n_days} days prediction")
plt.xlim(df_stock.index[0], get_next_stock_market_days(df_pred.index[-1], 1)[-1] )
plt.xlabel('Time')
plt.ylabel('Share Price ($)')
plt.grid(b=True, which='major', color='#666666', linestyle='-')
plt.minorticks_on()
plt.grid(b=True, which='minor', color='#999999', linestyle='-', alpha=0.2)
plt.plot([df_stock.index[-1], df_pred.index[0]], [df_stock['5. adjusted close'].values[-1], df_pred.values[0]], lw=1, c='tab:green', linestyle='--')
plt.plot(df_pred.index, df_pred, lw=2, c='tab:green')
plt.axvspan(df_stock.index[-1], df_pred.index[-1], facecolor='tab:orange', alpha=0.2)
xmin, xmax, ymin, ymax = plt.axis()
plt.vlines(df_stock.index[-1], ymin, ymax, linewidth=1, linestyle='--', color='k')
plt.show()
# Print prediction data
print("Predicted share price:")
df_pred = df_pred.apply(lambda x: f"{x:.2f} $")
print(df_pred.to_string())
print("")
except:
print("")